ICICI Bank sees India BoP turning positive, but weaker than expected
In short
ICICI Bank Global Markets says India’s Balance of Payments is turning positive, but not as much as earlier expected. The report blames higher oil prices and a bigger non-oil, non-gold deficit, and official 2025 data show exports at 22.263% of GDP and imports at 24.005% of GDP.
This matters because India’s external accounts may stay under pressure. The report does not give a specific forecast number, so the size of the improvement is still unclear.
What the reporting says
ICICI Bank Global Markets said India’s Balance of Payments is turning positive, but it is likely to stay below earlier expectations. The research report points to elevated oil prices and a widening non-oil, non-gold deficit as pressures on the external trade position, while official 2025 data show exports at 22.263% of GDP and imports at 24.005% of GDP. The immediate implication is continued strain on India’s external accounts, though the report does not give a forecast number.
Why it matters
ICICI Bank Global Markets said India’s Balance of Payments is moving into positive territory, but it should remain weaker than earlier expectations because of elevated oil prices and a widening non-oil, non-gold deficit. The available context also shows imports exceeding exports as a share of GDP in 2025. The report points to continued external-sector pressure for India, especially around trade and energy import costs.