Nomura sees RBI terminal repo rate at 5.75% after hikes
In short
Nomura expects the RBI to raise rates by 25 basis points in October and again in December. That would bring the terminal repo rate to 5.75%.
This matters for loans, borrowing costs and markets in India. The report says the chance of more hikes should drop from February 2027, but the RBI’s final decision is not stated.
What the reporting says
Nomura projected that the RBI will raise rates by 25 basis points in both October and December policy reviews, taking the terminal repo rate to 5.75%, according to the reporting. The note also said the odds of further hikes should fall from February 2027 as consumer spending weakens and inflation softens. The immediate implication is a tighter rate outlook, but the report does not say how the RBI will decide.
Why it matters
Nomura projected that the RBI will raise rates by 25 basis points in October and December, reaching a terminal repo rate of 5.75%. The report says the likelihood of more hikes should decline from February 2027 because of weaker consumer spending and a softer inflation outlook. That matters for borrowers, bond yields and rate-sensitive markets, but the RBI’s actual decision is not stated.