Nomura sees only 50 bps RBI hikes, below market bets
In short
Nomura said the RBI may raise rates by 50 basis points, while the market is betting on 125 basis points.
The note says underlying inflation is still fairly contained even after a recent rise. It does not say what the RBI will actually do.
What the reporting says
Nomura said the RBI may raise rates by only 50 bps, versus the market’s 125 bps expectation, in a Mint Economy report. The summary says underlying inflation remains relatively contained despite a recent pickup, and official 2025 World Bank data show consumer inflation at 2.39884954182294% and GDP deflator inflation at 0.973566848768186%. The immediate implication is a softer tightening outlook, but the RBI’s actual decision is not stated.
Why it matters
The report centers on Nomura’s view that the RBI may not tighten as much as the market expects. It points to relatively contained underlying inflation, while official 2025 data cited in the prompt show low consumer inflation and GDP deflator inflation. That could matter for borrowers, bond yields and rate-sensitive stocks, but the RBI’s next move is not confirmed.